Fears over 2015 presidential poll

Fears over 2015 presidential poll

Buhari and Jonathan

The conduct and utterances of some members of the country’s political class ahead of the 2015 general elections have made the call for an undertaking committing politicians to a violence-free elections compelling, writes JOHN ALECHENU

Analysts argue that never in Nigeria’s over 50-year-old history – as an independent nation – has the country faced this kind of multipronged threat to its national survival.

The current level of threat, which some argue, was initially posed by the activities of the Boko Haram sect, appears to have been compounded by fears being expressed about the forthcoming general elections.

A former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prof. Bolaji Akinyemi, said this in a well publicised open letter. Akinyemi pointed to what he called the notorious prediction from United States’ semi-official sources, that the world is expecting a cataclysmic meltdown of the Nigerian nation come 2015. According to him, while most Nigerians were outraged by this prediction, there are Nigerians who have remained indifferent to the outcome of this prediction.

Going down memory lane, the former diplomat noted that the certainty of violence after the 2015 elections is higher than it was in 2011. His fear is fuelled by permutations that if President Jonathan wins, the North would erupt in violence as it did in 2011. If Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) wins, the Niger Delta would erupt in violence. He said, “I don’t believe that we need rocket science to make this prediction. The violence of 2015 is going to be horrendous and worse than the one of 2011 for the simple reason that the illegal, massive importation of weapons into the country has reached such alarming proportions that I really wonder which is better armed, the militias or the official armed forces on the other hand.

“For the avoidance of doubt, I am not imputing the illegal importation of arms to any particular zone. Some years ago, some Iranians were arrested for bringing in a shipload of weapons into Lagos harbour. They were tried and jailed and then smuggled out of the country.”

He is not alone in expressing such fears. Jigawa State governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido, who only recently mended political fences with President Goodluck Jonathan, pointedly accused the President and his main challenger, Buhari, of inciting Nigerians to violence. Lamido observed that the two candidates have either directly or indirectly been encouraging their kinsmen and supporters to make provocative and incendiary statements capable of setting the nation ablaze before, during or after the elections.

The Jigawa State governor, who recently addressed a political gathering in Dutse, the state capital, told the crowd of party faithful that both Jonathan and Buhari should be personally held responsible if violence occurs as a result of the election. While expressing support for Akinyemi’s postulations and the call for the two candidates to sign a bond committing them to non-violent polls, he advocated that they should be held to account should the elections turn violent.

Lamido, specifically, decried the failure of both candidates to call their supporters who are leading the pack of those threatening to cause mayhem if the 2015 presidential election does not go their way.

Prominent northern leaders, including Dr. Junaid Mohammed, had warned of a possible breakdown of law and order if the 2015 election was rigged. Some other northerners were said to have threatened trouble if Buhari was rigged out.

A pro-Jonathan supporter and former Niger Delta militant, Mujahid Asari-Dokubo, on his part vowed that “blood will flow” if President Jonathan was not allowed to contest for and complete his second term.

Equally disturbing is a statement made by the Rivers State Governor and Director General of the Muhammadu Buhari Campaign Organisation, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, threatening that his party would no longer seek legal redress but would encourage civil disobedience and form a parallel government, if the election was rigged in favour of the ruling party.

President Jonathan’s call for peace and appeal to politicians to eschew violence attracted snide remarks from the opposition APC. The APC accused the President of paying lip service to violence-free polls because neither his party nor his ardent supporters have shown any sign of slowing down on their threats of anarchy should he lose the election.

In the light of this, Lamido said, “As our leaders, both personalities (Jonathan and Buhari), should caution their supporters to guard their utterances not to allow such incitements to drift the country into chaos. It is disheartening for any responsible citizen to allow such unscrupulous statements. It ought to be condemned by all and sundry for the sake of peace and oneness of the country as a corporate entity.

“We won’t succumb to sectional and religious politics or bigotry, or personal agenda aimed at destabilising the corporate existence of our great country.”

He recalled that the 2011 presidential election, which both leaders contested, witnessed post-election violence which led to the death of dozens of Nigerians and the loss of property, a situation which some families have been unable to recover from.

The report of the Independent National Electoral Commission on the 2011 general elections observed that election violence is a phenomenon that is not strange to Nigeria’s electoral history. It noted that during the First Republic, for example, post-election violence in the then Western Region, which erupted from 1964 to 1965, precipitated political upheavals that culminated in the collapse of the republic in January, 1966.

The commission also pointed out that even the April 2011 elections, hailed as being credible by domestic and international observers, were not spared of this unwholesome reaction.

INEC explained that the 2011 electoral violence, which was recorded in parts of northern Nigeria, was not a consequence of poor handling of the process by the commission. Rather, the report said it was a practical consequence of the do-or-die attitude of the political class to electoral contests. The INEC report also said the utterances of some of the candidates that lost and the general inability of politicians to accept defeat did not help matters.

This, the report added, led to the destruction of many lives and property in Bauchi, Gombe, and Kaduna, among other northern states. It equally noted that the culture of impunity and desperation, exploitation of religious and ethnic sentiments to incite groups against one another as well as outright mischief added fuel to an already burning fire.

In Bauchi state for instance, the report said, “In one of the worst instances of electoral violence since 1973, 10 NYSC members along with over 50 other innocent persons were also killed.” This is in addition to public and private buildings burnt. Sadly, these factors have, rather than abate, increased over the last four years.

Political pundits have expressed the opinion that the country’s current security situation is a creation of her political leadership. Those in this school of thought argue that a cross-section of the nation’s leaders prefer primitive accumulation of wealth to ensuring Nigeria’s collective survival. They also stressed the fact that Nigeria’s political leadership, especially at the national level, had elevated a penchant for exploitation, and abuse of established process, corruption and nepotism to an art. They contended that this, among other things, had created an atmosphere of suspicion and distrust between the leaders and the led and has stunted the desire for socio-economic growth.

To make matters worse, the winner-takes-all approach that promotes mediocrity in governance and relegates merit to the background coupled with tension-creating comments, find expression in violence.

Many Nigerians seem to agree with the call by Akinyemi and Lamido that there is the need for political actors, especially the presidential candidates of the two leading political parties, to sign an undertaking committing them to a peaceful election. This is even more so because their supporters across board take a cue from their public conduct and utterances to draw conclusions.

A good point to start from is for candidates of political parties not to hesitate to call any of their supporters to order whenever they make divisive utterances capable of inciting violence.

Chairman of INEC, Prof. Attahiru Jega, has used various platforms to appeal to politicians, political parties and their supporters to play the game by the rules.

He has also appealed to political parties to stick to the rules in the selection of candidates. This, he explained, would go a long way in reducing tension within the political parties and the polity.

Signing a binding agreement to promote peaceful conduct before, during and after the 2015 election will be a right step in the right direction towards electoral harmony.

Copyright PUNCH.All rights reserved. This material, and other digital content on this website, may not be reproduced, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed in whole or in part without prior express written permission from PUNCH.

Contact: editor@punchng.com

Will Muhammadu Buhari be Nigeria’s next president?

by Fisayo SoyomboWith Goodluck Jonathan’s collapsing popularity, Muhammadu Buhari actually stands a chance of winning the 2015 elections.
For the first time in Nigeria’s 16 years of democracy, there is real chance that the president could be someone other than the candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Many times, I have described Muhammadu Buhari, the man who will face Jonathan in 2015, as a “perennially-losing presidential candidate”.
In 2003 he emerged as the sole candidate of the All Peoples Party (APP), after two candidates Rochas Okorocha and Harry Akande were pressured into stepping down, while Yahaya Abubakar failed to show up on the date of the primary. In the elections, Buhari lost to then incumbent, Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP.
Buhari remains the single most popular man in northern Nigeria, writes Soyombo
In 2007, he was consensus candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) after Bukar Ibrahim and Pere Ajunwa were made to back down on convention day. Buhari then lost to PDP’s Umaru Musa Yar’Adua.
In 2011, he contested the elections on the platform of the Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), which he formed, losing again, to Goodluck Jonathan. In all three cases, his emergence was without intra-party opposition.
But I am first to admit that Buhari’s story has changed. By contesting and winning the presidential primary of the All Progressive Congress (APC) – the first time his presidential ambition has been challenged – Buhari has recorded the most important victory of his political career. And if the 2015 election is free and fair, he could well better that record.
Why Buhari may win
Buhari remains the single most popular man in northern Nigeria. Despite lacking real party structure, Buhari, with CPC in 2011, defeated Jonathan in Yobe, Zamfara, Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi, Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Gombe and Jigawa. He single-handedly polled a total of 12,214,853 votes, which amounted to 54.3 percent of Jonathan’s tally. Riding on the back of APC’s nationwide structure backed by 14 governors and their war chest, a Buhari victory in 2015 is quite possible.
Counting the Cost – Who is stealing Nigeria’s oil?
Buhari is popular outside the north as well. Four days after he created his Twitter account (@ThisIsBuhari), he had already amassed 45,000 followers. This is testament to Buhari’s growing national – not just northern – acceptability, because the north remains Nigeria’s least literate zone. The north, therefore, has a sparse population of Internet users, which means that Buhari’s crowd of Twitter followers probably come from across the country.
In truth, Buhari cannot take full credit for his popularity outside the north. Full marks should go to Goodluck Jonathan, the man who has unravelled as the antithesis of his opponent’s unique selling point.
Presidential spokesman Reuben Abati can deliver the floweriest prose about his boss’s aversion to corruption while his colleague Doyin Okupe hurls the foulest words at the opposition and other Nigerians daily puncturing the president’s professed incorruptibility. But the majority of Nigerians have come to accept that Jonathan, even if re-elected for 10 terms, will never fight corruption. The courage is lacking, the political will is no-existent, the desperation for re-election is so consuming that he would not hurt the weakest of his corrupt political allies. So Nigerians are prepared to turn to Buhari, unarguably the least stained presidential aspirant in the eyes of the people.
When APC was formed in February 2013, senior PDP figures dismissed it as a failure-bound union of four parties. Who would blame them? Many were sceptical that this merger would not survive even a year. Yet, in another two months, this merger would be two years old. But that is not the story.
The story is that all APC presidential aspirants defeated by Buhari have offered him their support. Few expected it. Atiku Abubakar, the man most expected to bolt out of APC in the event of a loss, congratulated Buhari the moment the ex-general’s vote count overtook his, even though the winner had not yet been officially announced at the time. There is a massive movement for Buhari, which Jonathan didn’t face in 2011.
Negative perceptions
That Buhari stands a good chance of winning does not mean he is not facing challenges. Nigerians, though forgetful, are largely an unforgiving lot. Their memories only need to be reignited by reminders of an individual’s past indiscretions.
Living under Boko Haram in Nigeria
That was what Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka did, first in 2007; and his thoughts have been massively re-circulated since Buhari’s emergence as the APC candidate. The unjust execution of Lawal Ojuolape, Bernard Ogedengbe and Bartholomew Owoh, through a retroactive decree, will haunt Buhari ahead of February.
There is nothing Muhammadu Buhai can do – and he himself knows – to extricate himself from his perception as a religious bigot. For the second time running, he has chosen a pastor as his running mate. But even if he chooses a pope, there are Nigerians who won’t pick Buhari for fear of enthroning a religiously extreme president.
In 2011, Buhari was accused of inciting the violence that followed his loss to Jonathan. The following year, he said “the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood” should the 2015 election be rigged. Buhari has shed blood before for his presidential ambition, some people believe. And they think he would do it again. Such man, they reason, should never taste power.
And there are those who would never vote for a 72-year-old. How can APC be trumpeting change while fielding a man who was military president more than three decades ago? That’s no change; it’s recycling.
The candidature of a septuagenarian is a dent on whatever progress we think we have made as a democracy. And although there have been arguments on the immorality of voting for either Buhari or Jonathan, Nigeria badly needs the “recycled freshness” that voting Jonathan out would herald!
Fisayo Soyombo edits Nigerian online newspaper TheCable.

There’ll be change in Nigeria in 2015 — Buhari, Tinubu

The Presidential candidate of the All progressives Congress, APC, Muhammadu Buhari, has assured Nigerian youth that the country will witness the change they have clamoured for years.
In a New Year message to the youth, Mr. Buhari said though he had shared a message to Nigerians in general, he found it crucial to direct a message to the youth because they are a critical population of the nation.
He said 2014 was a challenging year for most of the citizens of Nigeria, recounting the killing or maiming of some Nigerians by “evil terrorists,” the missing 219 Chibok children and the occupation of towns and villages by the Boko Haram sect.
Mr. Buhari, a former head of state, said though these were enough for the youth to despair and wonder if the country cares about them and could protect them, they should be hopeful.
“2015 has arrived at a time of great discomfort; but the beauty of the New Year is that we can look forward with renewed hope and the knowledge that things can and will change,” he said.
“In Nigeria’s case, we can truly look forward to the change that the elections can, and will, bring. Our country will be secure again. Our country will prosper again.
“I have faith that 2015 is the year we shall begin to write a new story – a story of our youth creating jobs and expanding the frontiers of innovation and creativity everywhere from Mavin Records to the Co-Creation Hub; a story of genuine investment in our children and students be they in the University of Nigeria, Nsukka or in the Delta State University, Abraka; a country that finally makes a permanent shift from our debilitating dependence on the free-falling price of crude oil.
“I have unshakeable faith that 2015 will be the year of change.”
Mr. Buhari said he and the APC would achieve all of them.
“Yes, you are disappointed and you are angry, as you are entitled to, but you must never give in to the temptation to feel so weighed down by those who have failed you that you lose your hope and your energy and your passion to see change. You must never give up on Nigeria.
A former governor of Lagos State, and chieftains of the APC, Bola Tinubu, in his New Year message titled “After darkness, a glorious dawn beckons for Nigeria,” a leader of the APC and former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu, said a new Nigeria is possible in 2015.
He said, “Another Nigeria is possible. A Nigeria where focused, visionary and competent governance vigorously tackles corruption, insecurity, poverty and promotes peace, progress and prosperity for all is attainable.
“After the current darkness, a glorious, new dawn for Nigeria is possible. But this needed change will not occur by chance. It can only be the result of deliberate and purposeful action on the part of our people to utilise democracy and popular power to achieve national liberation and transformation.”
Mr. Tinubu said it would be easy to give in to despair and despondency at the current state of Nigeria because the gap between the nation’s tremendous potentials and actual attainments was depressing and disheartening.
He argued that a country as endowed with human, material and natural resources as Nigeria should not have the level of poverty in which the vast majority of the our people live.
“The voodoo statistics of illusory growth and progress peddled by those currently in charge of Nigeria’s affairs do not reflect the dire material circumstances of millions of Nigerians,” he said.
The former governor said the ever widening inequality between the wealthy minority and the impoverished majority was fuelled largely by a scale of corruption and outright theft of public funds that had reached unprecedented heights in today’s Nigeria.
He said the traumatic experience of the over 200 Chibok girls who had remained in captivity for over six months showed that plaintive cries to an impotent government to ‘bring back our girls’ had become insufficient.
“Rather, we must utilise the power of our vote to ‘take back our country’ from the predators and scavengers in the corridors and bedrooms of power that currently hold her hostage. This calls for eternal vigilance to exercise our vote and protect out sacred mandate at the polls,” Mr. Tinubu said.
Also in a New Year message, the immediate past governor of Ekiti State, Kayode Fayemi, said the future prosperity of the country is tied to the change the people would make through the opportunity provided by the February 14 presidential election and other outlined elections in the year.
The former Ekiti State governor urged Nigerians to use their votes “as the only power they have to make the right change and bail themselves and the country out of the current inept PDP-led government which has proved to be helpless as the country continue to writhe in the pains of general insecurity, corruption, economic hardship and poor leadership.”
Related

Share: